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PolymarketOpenEnds in 8 days

Will the U.S. collect less than $100b in revenue in 2025?

Outcomes
<$100b
Mid
92.8%
Bid
92.4%
Ask
92.6%
Spread
0.2%
Not <$100b
Mid
7.2%
Bid
7.4%
Ask
7.6%
Spread
0.2%
Market Stats
Volume (24h)
$59.5K
Liquidity
$47.6K
Last Updated
2/19/26, 4:50 PM
Rules & Resolution

The U.S. government collected $82.2b in customs duties in FY 2025 (See: https://www.fiscal.treasury.gov/files/reports-statements/financial-report/2024/notes-to-the-financial-statements19.pdf).

This market will resolve according to the value of customs duties collected in FY 2025 according to the Financial Report of the United States Government published by the Treasury Department for FY 2025 (See: https://www.fiscal.treasury.gov/reports-statements/financial-report/)

If the Treasury Department does not publish relevant data for FY 2025 by February 28, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.

The resolution source will be the Treasury Department.