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KalshiOpenEnds in 10 months

Will Trump recognize Somaliland?

Outcomes
Before 2027
Mid
32.0%
Bid
-
Ask
-
Not Before 2027
Mid
68.0%
Bid
-
Ask
-
Market Stats
Volume (24h)
$29
Liquidity
$0
Open Interest
$1.3K
Last Updated
2/19/26, 6:00 PM
Rules & Resolution

If the United States explicitly and formally recognizes Somaliland as a sovereign state independent from any previously recognized country after Issuance and before Jan 1, 2027, the market resolves to Yes.

Additional Conditions

This could include: opening a U.S. embassy with Somaliland, accepting an ambassador from Somaliland, including the entity as an independent country in U.S. Department of State country lists, or signing a formal treaty, bilateral agreement, or communique that explicitly identifies Somaliland as an independent and sovereign state. <p>Merely acknowledging a governing authority exists, without recognizing its authority, is insufficient to resolve the market to Yes. Establishing a consulate or liaison office without the formal status and language of recognition does not qualify. Trade offices, cultural centers, or other non-embassy missions are insufficient. Participation alongside the entity in international conferences, humanitarian aid missions, or multilateral forums does not in itself constitute recognition as a sovereign state. Nor does U.S. abstention or vote in an international organization automatically equate to bilateral recognition.</p>

Resolution Sources

Contract Documents