Outcomes
claude-opus-4-6-thinking
Mid
20.0%Bid
9.0%Ask
31.0%Spread
22.0%Not claude-opus-4-6-thinking
Mid
80.0%Bid
69.0%Ask
91.0%Spread
22.0%Market Stats
Volume (24h)
$13.4K
Liquidity
$0
Open Interest
$26.4K
Last Updated
2/19/26, 10:51 AM
Rules & Resolution
If claude-opus-4-6-thinking is the top-ranked AI model on Feb 21, 2026 at 10:00 AM ET, then the market resolves to Yes.
Additional Conditions
If two models are tied under Rank (UB), then the model with the highest Arena Score will win. If two models are still tied after that, then the model with the most votes will win. If two models are still tied after that, the model that was released earlier will win. Important information: When checking the source for this market, check the 'Remove Style Control' toggle.