Will the margin of victory for John Cornyn in the first round of the 2026 Texas Senate Republican primary be between 6% and 9%?
If the margin of victory for John Cornyn in the first round of the 2026 Texas Senate Republican primary falls between 6% and 9%, inclusive of its lower bound and exclusive of its upper bound, then the market resolves to Yes.
Additional Conditions
The margin of victory shall be calculated as follows based on the margin type. For percentage points: the vote percentage received by John Cornyn minus the vote percentage received by the candidate/party/option that finishes immediately behind John Cornyn if John Cornyn wins, or the candidate/party that finishes first if John Cornyn loses. For raw votes: the total votes received by John Cornyn minus the total votes received by the candidate/party/option that finishes immediately behind John Cornyn if John Cornyn wins, or the candidate/party/option that finishes first if John Cornyn loses. For electoral votes: the electoral votes received by John Cornyn minus the electoral votes received by the candidate/party/option with the second-most electoral votes if John Cornyn wins, or the electoral votes received by John Cornyn minus the electoral votes received by the candidate/party/option with the most electoral votes if John Cornyn does not. <p>Each margin range is inclusive of its lower bound and exclusive of its upper bound. No rounding shall be applied to the calculated margin. For example, for consecutive ranges of 5-6% and 6-7%, a margin of 5.99999% resolves within the 5-6% range, while a margin of exactly 6% resolves within the 6-7% range. If John Cornyn runs under multiple parties or is listed multiple times, votes attributable to the same underlying natural John Cornyn will be summed.</p> <p>If John Cornyn wins the election, the margin will be positive. If John Cornyn loses the election, the margin will be negative. If John Cornyn ties for first place, the margin shall be 0. For uncontested races where John Cornyn is the only candidate, the margin shall be 100 percentage points or the total number of votes cast (for raw votes).</p>