Will the U.S. collect between $100b and $200b in revenue in 2025?

View on Polymarket

Outcomes

$100–200b

Mid

2.6%

Bid

5.7%

Ask

5.9%

Spread

0.2%

Not $100–200b

Mid

97.4%

Bid

94.1%

Ask

94.3%

Spread

0.2%

Market Stats

Volume (24h)

$19.8K

Liquidity

$32.5K

Last Updated

2/19/26, 4:50 PM

Rules & Resolution

The U.S. government collected $82.2b in customs duties in FY 2025 (See: https://www.fiscal.treasury.gov/files/reports-statements/financial-report/2024/notes-to-the-financial-statements19.pdf).

This market will resolve according to the value of customs duties collected in FY 2025 according to the Financial Report of the United States Government published by the Treasury Department for FY 2025 (See: https://www.fiscal.treasury.gov/reports-statements/financial-report/)

If the Treasury Department does not publish relevant data for FY 2025 by February 28, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.

The resolution source will be the Treasury Department.