Outcomes
Q1 2026
Mid
7.5%Bid
-Ask
-Not Q1 2026
Mid
92.5%Bid
-Ask
-Market Stats
Volume (24h)
$30
Liquidity
$0
Open Interest
$31.1K
Last Updated
2/19/26, 12:20 PM
Rules & Resolution
If the NBER declares the peak of American business activity predating a recession to be in Q1 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
Additional Conditions
Clarification 4/15/25 3:00 AM ET: The determination for this market will be based on which quarter NBER highlights (independent of the month they highlight). For example, the most recent recession written as "February 2020 (2019Q4)" would resolve YES for the market called "Q4 2019" (if this was listed).