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KalshiOpenEnds in 10 months

When will the next U.S. recession start?

Outcomes
Q3 2025
Mid
1.5%
Bid
1.0%
Ask
4.0%
Spread
3.0%
Not Q3 2025
Mid
98.5%
Bid
96.0%
Ask
99.0%
Spread
3.0%
Market Stats
Volume (24h)
$0
Liquidity
$0
Open Interest
$19.8K
Last Updated
2/19/26, 12:30 PM
Rules & Resolution

If the NBER declares the peak of American business activity predating a recession to be in Q3 2025, then the market resolves to Yes.

Resolution Sources

Contract Documents