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KalshiOpenEnds in 13 months

Will 2026 be the hottest year on record?

Outcomes
Hottest
Mid
23.5%
Bid
-
Ask
-
Not Hottest
Mid
76.5%
Bid
-
Ask
-
Market Stats
Volume (24h)
$295
Liquidity
$0
Open Interest
$13.9K
Last Updated
2/19/26, 12:30 PM
Rules & Resolution

If the unsmoothed Land-Ocean Temperature Index value for 2026 reported by NASA’s Goddard Institute for Space Studies (GISS) is above the 2025 value and 1.28 degrees Celsius, then the market resolves to Yes.

Additional Conditions

The market will close at 11:59 PM ET on December 31, 2026. The market will expire at the sooner of the first 10:00 AM following the release of the data for 2026, or 10:00 AM ET April 01, 2027

Resolution Sources

Contract Documents