Skip to main content
PolymarketOpenEnds in 4 months

Will OpenAI have a #1 AI model by June 30?

Outcomes
OpenAI
Mid
36.0%
Bid
-
Ask
-
Not OpenAI
Mid
64.0%
Bid
-
Ask
-
Market Stats
Volume (24h)
$1.4K
Liquidity
$5.2K
Last Updated
2/19/26, 9:00 AM
Rules & Resolution

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed company has the highest arena score on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) for any amount of time by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."

Results from the "Arena Score" section on the Leaderboard tab of https://lmarena.ai/ with the style control unchecked will be used to resolve this market.

If a listed model ties for #1 Arena score, it will suffice to resolve this market to "Yes."

The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source becomes unavailable, the market will remain open until it is accessible again. If it becomes permanently unavailable, resolution will be based on another credible source.