Will Brazil’s unemployment rate for November–January 2026 be less than or equal to 4.8%?

This market will resolve according to the Brazilian unemployment rate reported by the Brazilian Institute of Geography and Statistics (IBGE) in the monthly Continuous National Household Sample Survey (PNAD) for the period of November 2025-January 2026 (quarter ending in January 2026).

The resolution source for this market is the Continuous National Household Sample Survey (PNAD) release (monthly dissemination), published by the IBGE every month at https://agenciadenoticias.ibge.gov.br/en/agencia-press-room.html

The next data release is currently scheduled to be released on March 5, 2026, according to the official calendar (https://www.ibge.gov.br/en/calendar.html). This market will resolve as soon as the relevant data is issued. Any revisions to the data after the first release will not count toward this market's resolution.

If no relevant data for the specified period is released by the date the next period’s data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available release.

Note: the resolution source for this market reports unemployment to one decimal point. Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.