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KalshiOpenEnds in 10 months

When will the next U.S. recession start?

Outcomes
Q2 2025
Mid
1.5%
Bid
1.0%
Ask
2.0%
Spread
1.0%
Not Q2 2025
Mid
98.5%
Bid
98.0%
Ask
99.0%
Spread
1.0%
Market Stats
Volume (24h)
$233
Liquidity
$0
Open Interest
$23.5K
Last Updated
2/19/26, 12:20 PM
Rules & Resolution

If the NBER declares the peak of American business activity predating a recession to be in Q2 2025, then the market resolves to Yes.

Resolution Sources

Contract Documents