Will the tariff rate on China imports be between 30% and 39.99% on Jul 1, 2026?
If the general import tariff rate on imports from China into the United States on Jul 1, 2026 is between 30 to 39.99%, then the market resolves to Yes.
Additional Conditions
The market resolves based on the general import tariff rate that is actually in effect on the specified date. This includes both universal tariffs on all U.S. imports and country-specific tariffs on the specified country. Only tariffs that are currently active and being collected count - announced but not implemented tariffs, paused tariffs, or suspended tariffs do not qualify. The tariff rate refers to the general baseline rate, not including product-specific duties or exemptions. If multiple general rates apply, the general import tariff rate is the sum of all applicable general rates in effect.
<p>Examples (for <date> = Jan 1, 2026):</p> <ul> <li>India: 25% Reciprocal Tariff (EO 14326) + 25% Russian Oil Penalty (EO 14329) = <b>50%</b></li> <li>China: 10% Reciprocal Tariff (EO 14358) + 10% Fentanyl Duty (EO 14357) = <b>20%</b></li> <li>European Union: <b>15%</b> Reciprocal Tariff "Floor" (EO 14326)</li> <li>Falkland Islands: <b>10%</b> Reciprocal Tariff (EO 14326)</li> </ul>